On the trail of the best payout machine

Dear Mark: I read with interest your articles in the Detroit Free Press. Your recent article on the subject matter was very informative, as are most, but.... how does one determine which machines are high frequency payers or low frequency payers? I gamble at our three local casinos, and they don’t advertise the different machines as such. I would very much like to know how a player could differentiate. George B. 

First, George, a quick review for those who may have missed the column on “hit frequency.”  

What the hit frequency of any machine tells you, is how likely it is to award a payout. The higher the hit frequency, the more probable a payout on any spin, but more than likely on the low end in value. When a machine has a low hit frequency, it means that the hits on the machine are going to be fewer and farther between, but for higher jackpots. A high frequency machine can have modest winning combinations show up every three, four or five spins, whereas a low hit frequency machine may have a winning combination appear only once every dozen whirls.

What the casino doesn’t make easy, George, is cruising the casino floor and determining which machines are which. You can somewhat identify high hit frequency machines, but not necessarily the low hit frequency/high jackpot machines. You would need a gaming timeline of hundreds of thousands of handle yanks to compare paybacks and find high-paying machines. However, what I can do is give you some guidance as to how to identify high frequency payers.

Begin by tracking your play on the machines you typically play, noting for each number of spins and number of payouts. After a few thousand spins, you’ll have a reasonable intuition as to the true hit frequency of the machines you’ve been playing

Study the pay tables posted on the machines. If the lowest jackpot seems a tad high, the hit frequency is likely lower but richer. A slot machine that has numerous combinations providing smaller wins will usually be a high frequency machine, while one that offers fewer winning combinations but offers larger wins is a low frequency machine.

Most video slots tend to be high hit frequency machines. How can you tell? Because you’ll notice by looking at the pay table they pay less than a push on any spin. For instance, you bet one coin each on all nine paylines, and all you get in return is five coins.

Progressives, especially machines with gargantuan jackpots, tend to be low hit frequency machines.

Machines that are advertised to pay back more than 98% are typically high hit frequency machines where you will end up with a lot of little payouts. You might eke out some buffet money, but a sizable payoff is less likely.  

Which machines to play, George, is a personal preference. If you have a small or dwindled bankroll, you would want to play on a machine that offers a higher hit frequency to get more play from your limited funds. If you’re knee high in credits, then play on a machine with limited lower payouts but one that offers you a shot at champagne wishes and caviar dreams. 

Gambling Wisdom of the Week: “If it wasn't for all the money I keep losing, this poker thing could be a lot of fun.” —VP Pappy

Some numbers – make notes – there’ll be a quiz

Dear Mark: In video poker, do higher denomination games always pay more than lower denomination games? It seems nickel slots never pay as much as quarter slots, which pay less than dollar slot machines, so I assume that holds true with video poker. Claire D.

Don’t muddle up slots with video poker, Claire. You are correct in that in general, $5 slot machines pay more than $1 slots, which pay more than quarters, quarters more than nickels, which pay more than pennies, but that does not necessarily always apply to video poker.

With video poker, it is the pay table that tells you the maximum long-term payback percentage of a machine. True, you will usually find better pay tables as you climb the denomination ladder, but video poker games with the same pay table return the same percentages over the long haul, despite differences in coin denomination.

For instance, let’s look at a 9-6 Jacks-or-Better machine, where full houses pay 9-for-1 and flushes 6-for-1. This version of Jacks or Better is regarded as a full-pay video poker machine, and returns 99.5 percent with optimal play regardless of whether you were to play nickels, quarters or dollars.

If the full house and flush paybacks were reduced to 8 and 5, your return would drop accordingly, but again, Claire, it wouldn’t matter what coin denomination you were playing.

And how much are you giving up with these reduced pay tables? With perfect play and playing maximum coinage, a 9/6 Jacks-or-better machine returns 99.5%, the 9/5 game 98.4%, the 8/6 game 98.3%, the 8/5 game 97.3%, and a 7/5 machine returns only 96.2%.

Dear Mark: If you choose not to play the full amount per hand on video poker, would playing one versus two coins make any difference? Jenny S.

No, Jenny, with but one exception, and that is only if you hit a royal flush. Payoffs are proportional to the number of coins played. For example, two pair returns two coins with one coin played, four for two, six for three, eight for four, and 10 for five. The one exception, Jenny, and it’s a big one, comes with the royal flush, which pays 250 coins for one, 500 for two, 750 for three, 1,000 for four, and when you put that fifth coin in, payment soars to 4,000 coins.

Getting back to our 9/6 Jacks-or-better example (abandoned above), if you do not play the maximum number of coins, your theoretical return is reduced from 99.5% to 98.05%.

These percentage differences derive from the assumption, Jenny, that over the long run you will hit your fair share of royal flushes with the full coin amount played. Royal flushes are expected about once every 40,000 hands, or about once every 80 hours of play at typical speed. Otherwise, over those 80 hours of play, expect more losing sessions than winning ones. I never said it was going to be easy.

Dear Mark: Few players do it, but is it advisable to double down after splitting pairs? Dave C.

Doubling down after splitting pairs is an advantageous rule for the player that lowers the house edge.

In all the years pitching cardboard, Dave, I was always amazed at how few players took advantage of this player-favorable rule. When used correctly, doubling down after splitting pairs lowers the casino's edge by approximately 0.14%.

Gambling Wisdom of the Week: “Don’t be a gambler; once a gambler, always a gambler. —John W Gates, 1909 warning from the 54-year-old ‘Bet-a-million’ Gates, legendary US gambler, to a Church conference in Texas.