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<!--Generated by Squarespace Site Server v5.11.81 (http://www.squarespace.com/) on Sat, 26 May 2012 04:09:00 GMT--><feed xmlns="http://www.w3.org/2005/Atom" xmlns:dc="http://purl.org/dc/elements/1.1/"><title>Deal Me In</title><subtitle>Deal Me In</subtitle><id>http://www.markpilarski.com/deal-me-in/</id><link rel="alternate" type="application/xhtml+xml" href="http://www.markpilarski.com/deal-me-in/"/><link rel="self" type="application/atom+xml" href="http://www.markpilarski.com/deal-me-in/atom.xml"/><updated>2012-05-25T13:48:28Z</updated><generator uri="http://www.squarespace.com/" version="Squarespace Site Server v5.11.81 (http://www.squarespace.com/)">Squarespace</generator><entry><title>In every bet, there is a fool and a thief – Proverb</title><id>http://www.markpilarski.com/deal-me-in/in-every-bet-there-is-a-fool-and-a-thief-proverb.html</id><link rel="alternate" type="text/html" href="http://www.markpilarski.com/deal-me-in/in-every-bet-there-is-a-fool-and-a-thief-proverb.html"/><author><name>Mark Pilarski</name></author><published>2012-05-25T13:47:39Z</published><updated>2012-05-25T13:47:39Z</updated><content type="html" xml:lang="en-US"><![CDATA[<p><strong>Dear Mark: I was in Las Vegas last week for the first time in about six years and was disappointed to see all the casinos on the Strip changed to single deck with a payout of 6 to 5 for blackjacks. I was curious to know if it were more advantageous to double down on a blackjack if the dealer was holding a bust card, or just take the 6 to 5 deal. Jim I.</strong>&nbsp;</p>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
<p>I cringe, Jim, when seeing the advertisement that reads; &ldquo;Back by Popular Demand &hellip; Single Deck Blackjack," which lacks of course, itsy bitsy fine print stating, &ldquo;6-5 blackjack is an inferior game.&rdquo;</p>
<p>Yes, Jim, the 6-5 game has become far too prevalent, and regrettably, the uninformed are lining up to park their posteriors on stools to submit to it. The easy out is to criticize the casino for its greed, but some blame must be placed on players who patronize 6-5 tables without researching the game. You always want to get maximum value for your blackjacks, and you do that by getting paid 3 to 2, not 6 to 5. These 6-5 games give the casino an edge of almost 1.5%. &nbsp;&nbsp;</p>
<p>To answer your question directly, even on a 6-5 game, by taking the guaranteed payoff, you still have a higher expected value than by just doubling down on an 11, regardless of the up-card, so take the snapper.</p>
<p>Historically, Jim, the 3-2 blackjack payoff originated in the betting parlors of Evansville, IN, and has been around since 1912. Now a century later, this columnist suggests when you come across a table that pays 6-5 for blackjacks, don't concern yourself over taking even money for a blackjack versus doubling down, just split, from that table that is.</p>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
<p><strong>Dear Mark: Being new to craps, I was wondering if it is okay to ask dealers for advice. Dave A.</strong></p>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
<p>Absolutely, Dave, as it should be included under the &ldquo;be certified friendly and helpful&rdquo; topic in their employee handbook, or at least it was in mine. Better yet, approach a dealer on a dead table to ask your uncertainties of the game. Most dealers are amenable to explaining the betting process. Finally, many of the larger casinos offer table game classes for the tenderfoot like yourself to help you learn the ins-and-outs of your preferred game. Just check with a pit boss to see if your favorite casino offers one for craps.</p>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
<p><strong>Dear Mark: You state that the expected value of all bets is negative, and that over time, the player will lose money. You also state that Free odds have no casino advantage. Are you not contradicting yourself? Richard D. </strong></p>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
<p>Not at all, Richard, simply because,&nbsp; "Free odds" must be packaged with your Pass line wager and cannot be made separately. Combined, they still make the expected value of your entire wager negative. By taking the maximum amount of Free odds possible, you substantially reduce, but never eliminate, the casino edge.</p>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
<p><strong>Gambling Wisdom of the Week: </strong>&ldquo;If you must play, decide upon three things at the start: the rules of the game, the stakes, and the quitting time.&rdquo;&nbsp; &mdash;Chinese Proverb<strong></strong></p>]]></content></entry><entry><title>Be "Put" off by this bet</title><id>http://www.markpilarski.com/deal-me-in/be-put-off-by-this-bet-1.html</id><link rel="alternate" type="text/html" href="http://www.markpilarski.com/deal-me-in/be-put-off-by-this-bet-1.html"/><author><name>Mark Pilarski</name></author><published>2012-05-18T10:47:34Z</published><updated>2012-05-18T10:47:34Z</updated><content type="html" xml:lang="en-US"><![CDATA[<p><strong>Dear Mark: Some casinos offer a wager on the crap game called a &ldquo;Put&rdquo; bet; others do not. Should I be playing craps where they offer it, since it might be a bet that is favorable to the player? Rick K.</strong></p>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
<p>A "Put" bet, Rick, is a seldom-played wager that you can make on the Pass line after a point is established. For instance, say you have no action on the Pass line and the shooter rolls a six. You can then "Put" a bet down on the Pass line and instantly take the maximum odds.</p>
<p>The reason the casino allows you to make a &ldquo;Put&rdquo; bet is because you bypass a 22.2% chance of winning on the come-out if the 7 or 11 rolls, and only a 11.11% chance of losing if you crap-out, which is when the 2, 3, or 12 appears. For the normal crap player, especially one who does not take Free odds, it is a terrible bet and not worth giving up the come-out roll potential. &nbsp;</p>
<p>If you abstain from taking Free odds, which, by the way, carries no house edge, the casino has a 9.1% advantage on a 6 or 8 Put bet, 20% on the 5 or 9, and an enormous 33.3% edge on the 4 or 10.</p>
<p>Players who take the benefit of instant Free odds will need to play on a table that offers at least 5x odds if the Put bet is played on either the 6 or 8: otherwise, Rick, it&rsquo;s better to be Placing those numbers instead.&nbsp;</p>
<p>Only if the casino offers 10X, 50X and even 100X odds, a &ldquo;put&rdquo; bet is a decent bad wager, especially on a $2 game. The higher odds will more than offset the seven/eleven come-out advantage. However, Rick, if the casino where you play offers only 2X odds max, it is still more profitable to make a Pass line bet and take advantage of the come out seven/eleven.&nbsp;</p>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
<p><strong>Dear Mark: When I approached a blackjack game, a dealer told me he was cold. After an hour of play, I was down just $10 dollars, so I would consider that an overall win. Does a dealer really know if he or she is about to get hot or cold? Bill A.</strong></p>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
<p>As you approached the game, the dealer was offering comment on past performance, along with misguidedly relying on the notion that his preceding hands are a predictor of a future, frigid result.</p>
<p>Sure, Bill, any dealer can tell you at any given moment if they are &ldquo;presently&rdquo; hot or cold, but that is just an observation from previous hands. What no dealer can do is predict whether he or she will be hot or cold in the future, simply because the next hand remains an independent, random event, with the cards not caring what has happened in the past.</p>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
<p><strong>Gambling Wisdom of the Week: </strong>&ldquo;Man is a gaming animal.&nbsp; He must always be trying to get the better in something or other.&rdquo;&nbsp; &mdash;Charles Lamb, Essays of Elia, 1823</p>]]></content></entry><entry><title>Making “doing okay” even better</title><id>http://www.markpilarski.com/deal-me-in/making-doing-okay-even-better.html</id><link rel="alternate" type="text/html" href="http://www.markpilarski.com/deal-me-in/making-doing-okay-even-better.html"/><author><name>Mark Pilarski</name></author><published>2012-05-11T10:49:23Z</published><updated>2012-05-11T10:49:23Z</updated><content type="html" xml:lang="en-US"><![CDATA[<p><strong>Dear Mark: In today's article in the Detroit Free Press, you answered a question about playing craps. You mention the Pass line wager and a Place bet on the 6 or 8, giving the house edge of about 1.5%. You then state that this is lowered even more when taking Odds. What exactly is taking odds? I bet the Pass line wager and the Place bet on the 6 or 8 like you suggest when I head to the casino and do OK most of the time. I may be taking odds but don't know it.......help!!!! &nbsp;Jeff T.</strong></p>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
<p>Odds are a separate wager, which are different from a Pass line bet or Placing the 6 and 8. Thus, Jeff, if you were taking odds, I am sure you would know it. Next time you belly up to a crap game, note that your Pass line bet has a defined space on the layout where you put your chips. The chips in an unmarked area directly behind a Pass line bet, those, Jeff, are odds.</p>
<p>When playing craps, the predominant bet is the Pass line wager. Although most players at the table have some action on the Pass line, taking odds is a supplemental wager to your Pass line bet that you would make after the point is established. Paired together, now you have a Pass line bet and odds packaged, and your winning payoff occurs if the point appears before the seven rolls.</p>
<p>What&rsquo;s great about taking odds, Jeff, is that this wager is distinct from all the other casino wagers in that free odds carry NO casino advantage. All bets are paid off at true odds, paying 2 to 1 on points of 4 and 10, 3 to 2 on a 5 and 9, and 6 to 5 on the points of 6 and 8. As stated in the column that you cited, a Pass line (or Come bet) with no odds has a house edge of 1.4%.</p>
<p>With a $10 wager and 50 playing decisions hourly, your theoretical loss (all bets lose over time) is $10 X 50 X 0.014, or $7 per hour. Adding an extra $10 for single odds to your $10 pass line wager, you reduce the house edge down to 0.85%, with your hourly loss lowered to $4.25. Take multiple odds, say, for instance, 3X odds, or $30 behind your Pass line bet, your combined house edge now becomes just 0.47%. Note, Jeff, that by taking odds, your exposure to an hourly loss is reduced considerably. &nbsp;</p>
<p>Yes, Jeff, a Pass line bet with multiple odds is an outstanding wager, but be aware that even with odds, craps is a negative expectation game, and the house still has an overall edge on your play.</p>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
<p><strong>Dear Mark: I have always been a bit nervous about doubling down on 10&rsquo;s and 11&rsquo;s against a dealer up-card of 10. I prefer to hit instead, especially my 10&rsquo;s, and win my fair share of times doing so. Because I do win, should I consider doubling? Jim D.</strong></p>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
<p>As you should, Jim, win that is, your fair share of times by just hitting a 10 instead of doubling. By hitting your 10, you will win approximately 56% of the time. However, if you were to double down, you will win 54% of the time, and win twice the amount. Therefore, Jim, let me throw a question your way. Which do you think is better? Winning one wager 56% of the time, or doubling the same wager and winning 54% of the time.</p>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
<p><strong>Gambling Wisdom of the Week: </strong>&ldquo;A race track is a place where windows clean people.&rdquo;&nbsp; ~Danny Thomas</p>]]></content></entry><entry><title>To assure a win, hold your breath and count to thirteen</title><id>http://www.markpilarski.com/deal-me-in/to-assure-a-win-hold-your-breath-and-count-to-thirteen.html</id><link rel="alternate" type="text/html" href="http://www.markpilarski.com/deal-me-in/to-assure-a-win-hold-your-breath-and-count-to-thirteen.html"/><author><name>Mark Pilarski</name></author><published>2012-05-06T16:24:32Z</published><updated>2012-05-06T16:24:32Z</updated><content type="html" xml:lang="en-US"><![CDATA[<p><strong>Dear Mark: Why is it that when a player jumps in while I&rsquo;m playing blackjack, it seems to screw up the order of the cards in the shoe for the worse? Brian M.</strong></p>
<p><strong>&nbsp;</strong></p>
<p>Many players&rsquo; superstitions lead to strong, dubious, beliefs, such as: &nbsp;a new player enters the game in the middle of a shoe, changing the order of the cards and causing the innocent believer-in-magic to lose.&nbsp;</p>
<p>Yes, Brian, I will agree with you that the order of cards will alter when someone enters the game, but there is no way that you, the dealer, Nostradamus, or I can predict whether the new sequence of cards will help or hurt you. If you are playing smart, that being with perfect basic strategy, your expected return will remain the same regardless of minor turmoil due to Joe Blow&rsquo;s arrival.</p>
<p>Appropriate etiquette when playing on a hand-held single or double deck game is to wait until the dealer shuffles before you join, especially if other players are winning, and they do not want you to change their luck. On the other hand, on a shoe or automatic shuffler, it is typical for a new player to enter the game immediately.</p>
<p>Nevertheless, it is always courteous to ask, &ldquo;Do you mind if I join your game?&rdquo; when stepping up to any table. Who needs the wrath of the players whose flow of cards suddenly changes because you jumped in? In their eyes, you intruded on a game in progress, and abruptly their &ldquo;perceived&rdquo; luck changed, which erroneously becomes your fault. &nbsp;</p>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
<p><strong>Dear Mark: I always take even money on a blackjack because you get an even money payoff with no risk. I figure it's the bird in the hand. Why shouldn&rsquo;t I take the money and run? Jeff C. </strong></p>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
<p>You, Jeff, are typical of a player who is risk-averse, or as you proverbially put it, <em>plus valet in manibus avis unica quam dupla silvis</em>, which loosely translated from Latin means, &ldquo;A bird in the hand is worth more than two in the woods.&rdquo; You figure this maxim points out that by passing up even money for your blackjack, hoping for a more favorable return, you risk losing a sure thing.</p>
<p>What Jeff is pondering is that when you are a dealt a blackjack, and the dealer shows an ace up-card, he has the option of taking even money before the dealer checks the hole card. Jeff wants the bird in hand, but by taking even-money in blackjack, mathematically it will cost him 4% in profits over the long run. &nbsp;</p>
<p>Why? Simply because the dealer is more likely to NOT have a blackjack than to have one. Jeff will, over time, win marginally more than even money per hand if he were to pass on it. Therefore, Jeff, although you think it is better to be content with what one has rather than risk a certainty over a promising possibility, you will wind up with more greenbacks in your pocket over time if you decline the invitation of even money.&nbsp;</p>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
<p><strong>Gambling Wisdom of the Week: </strong>&ldquo;The typical gambler might not really understand the probabilistic nuances of the wheel or the dice, but such things seem a bit more tractable than, say, trying to raise a child in this lunatic society of ours.&rdquo;&nbsp; ~Arthur S. Reber, The New Gambler's Bible</p>]]></content></entry><entry><title>Those costly bargains</title><id>http://www.markpilarski.com/deal-me-in/those-costly-bargains.html</id><link rel="alternate" type="text/html" href="http://www.markpilarski.com/deal-me-in/those-costly-bargains.html"/><author><name>Mark Pilarski</name></author><published>2012-04-27T14:36:24Z</published><updated>2012-04-27T14:36:24Z</updated><content type="html" xml:lang="en-US"><![CDATA[<p><strong>Dear Mark: Both my wife and I have separate casino club cards at the same casino. She plays slots while I mostly play video poker. We play about the same amount, $100 per visit, and yet, she receives more in comps that I do. Does that sound right to you? Martin G.</strong></p>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
<p>The reason your wife is getting more goodies than you, Martin, is because most casinos today rate slot play higher than your video poker play.</p>
<p>With expert play, some video poker machines can return in excess of 100%. Even the Average Joe winging it will get back 95 percent on select machines. If your wife is playing pennies or nickels, she is looking at returns of 80 to 90 percent. Her play, or as the house looks at it, her inevitable loss, is more valuable to them, hence, more in comps &ndash; and more smiles.</p>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
<p><strong>Dear Mark: I liked your article last week on luck. As I read it, you definitely lean more towards skill than luck. However, you will admit skill doesn&rsquo;t guarantee you being a winner. Alex H.</strong></p>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
<p>I quantified the significance of skill, and opined that the skilled player playing smart won&rsquo;t hemorrhage so much hard-earned cash, but nobody, Alex, is guaranteed to win. That&rsquo;s why they call it gambling.</p>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
<p><strong>Dear Mark: Do you Twitter, and if so, anything regarding gambling? Tim M.</strong></p>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
<p>Sorry, Tim, I just never got into it so no tweeter-twatter from me. Besides, whoever was to subscribe to my tweet stream would quickly notice that my contributions to the twitosphere would be mostly food related, and if tweeted I was eating a chili dog at Lafayette&rsquo;s Coney Island in Detroit, I would be fibbing and <span style="color: black;">furtively </span>eating four.</p>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
<p><strong>Dear Mark: I have been reading your column for over 15 years and always take your advice. When playing craps, I limited my wagers to the Pass line, with odds, and placing the 6 or 8. On my last outing, my friend says that&rsquo;s smart betting, but he is obsessed with also betting the 7. You have advised against this. If he is making two right bets, why is he insistent on making a wrong one? Ray M</strong>.</p>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
<p>The quality of any wager, Ray, is based on the casino advantage, which is the amount the house theoretically earns per dollar bet, averaged over time. With a Pass line wager and a Place bet on the 6 or 8, you are making bets with a slight house edge, approximately 1.5%, then lowered even more when taking odds. By betting the Any 7, your friend is making the worst proposition bet on the crap table, and it should be dumped from his casino-betting repertoire.&nbsp;</p>
<p>With this one-roll wager, he wins if a 7 rolls, but if any other number appears, he loses. The odds are 5-to-1 of a 7 rolling, but the casino will only pay you 4-to-1. This gives the house an edge of 16.7%.</p>
<p>My guess is your friend either doesn&rsquo;t understand, or care, that the greater the edge, the more money the casino keeps, or he is overly focused on a 4-to-1 payoff.</p>
<p>Proposition bets, and especially the Any 7, are just not the smart way to play craps. A bet on the pass line, taking odds, or placing the six or eight is what I call SMART GAMBLING. Stick to it, Ray. Let your friend donate to the casino&rsquo;s coffers.</p>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
<p><strong>Gambling Wisdom of the Week: </strong>&ldquo;Luck never gives; it only lends.&rdquo; ~Swedish Proverb</p>]]></content></entry><entry><title>Early worm in robin-swallowing spring training</title><id>http://www.markpilarski.com/deal-me-in/early-worm-in-robin-swallowing-spring-training.html</id><link rel="alternate" type="text/html" href="http://www.markpilarski.com/deal-me-in/early-worm-in-robin-swallowing-spring-training.html"/><author><name>Mark Pilarski</name></author><published>2012-04-20T13:46:45Z</published><updated>2012-04-20T13:46:45Z</updated><content type="html" xml:lang="en-US"><![CDATA[<p><strong>Dear Mark: I have been reading your column for years and very much enjoy your comments and insight. My question is this:&nbsp;Over the long haul, with many players and many cumulative hours played, casinos approach the statistical advantages you so often cite. Yet, on a shorter-term basis, when an individual player may only play for a few hours or so, those typical odds are skewed toward runs of either good or bad fortune.&nbsp;It seems to me that there are people who have more than their fair share of bad fortune (with more than expected losses) and vice versa, even though both types play the same way.&nbsp;In other words, do you believe some people just have innate bad luck, and some have good luck? To the house, it does not make much difference because it all evens out with their statistical percentage advantage, but to the individual player, especially those with constant bad luck, it is noticeable.&nbsp;I consider myself in the bad luck category while I watch others I know win time after time.&nbsp;Any thoughts on this? Mel Z.</strong></p>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
<p>Franklin D. Roosevelt once said; &ldquo;I think we consider too much the good luck of the early bird and not enough the bad luck of the early worm.&rdquo; Huh, must be talking about you, Mel.&nbsp;</p>
<p>I will agree with you that always being the creepy-crawler sprawling down the casino&rsquo;s gullet just isn&rsquo;t fun. Although you did not mention your game(s) of choice, when you are not winning with the frequency predicted by barnyard math, you still must look at the randomness of gaming, your game/bet choices, and your relatively short gambling timeline.&nbsp;</p>
<p>All wagers are purposely designed to assure the casino a specific return. This percentage return is a long-term concept, and not based on cumulative hours of select gamblers. Your gaming timeline is perhaps limited to hundreds of yanks of the handle, hands of cards or rolls of dice, not millions, so any percentage anomaly can, and will, happen. &nbsp;</p>
<p>Over the years, I have gotten my fair share of mail from players whose scuttlebutt is to blame their continuous losing streak on bad luck. Very few will admit that it could be the canniness of the bets they make. Sure, Mel, you can look at luck as good or bad fortune beyond one's control that just happens, but the casino does offer a wide variety of wagers, with a huge difference in return among them, which leads me once again to state: The smarter you play, the luckier you&rsquo;ll be.&nbsp;</p>
<p>The upshot here is to realize that abysmal aberrations in winning and losing do happen, but losing aberrations do not last forever. Luck may well be seen as something, which happens &nbsp;beyond your control, but you can change it up some it by limiting your bets to wagers that have less than a two percent casino advantage. Correspondingly, Mel, I could be remiss if I didn't suggest looking at alternative forms of leisure entertainment. Possibly, gambling just ain&rsquo;t your thing this year.</p>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
<p><strong>Dear Mark: Do winning bets ride in roulette? Say, for instance, I do not want to bet repeat numbers. Can I simply ask the dealer to give me my chips back? Tim S. </strong></p>
<p><strong>&nbsp;</strong></p>
<p>You sure can, Tim, but note that dealers typically leave your winning bet on the layout while your payoff on the inside wagers (numbers) are pushed to you. It is your responsibility to remove the winning wager if you do not want it to play on the following spin. In addition, outside wagers (odd/even, red/black, the columns, etc.) are left alongside your original winning wager. When any wager stays, it plays.</p>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
<p><strong>Gambling Wisdom of the Week: </strong>&ldquo;Most of us regard good luck as our right, and bad luck as a betrayal of that right.&rdquo; &ndash;William Feather</p>]]></content></entry><entry><title>Splitstown revisited</title><id>http://www.markpilarski.com/deal-me-in/splitstown-revisited.html</id><link rel="alternate" type="text/html" href="http://www.markpilarski.com/deal-me-in/splitstown-revisited.html"/><author><name>Mark Pilarski</name></author><published>2012-04-13T13:57:36Z</published><updated>2012-04-13T13:57:36Z</updated><content type="html" xml:lang="en-US"><![CDATA[<p><strong>Dear Mark: In today's column, you discuss the answer to the&nbsp;question of splitting tens.&nbsp;You touched on the subject of "putting your stellar hand in unwarranted jeopardy."&nbsp;I think that is the main reason not to split tens, and although I recognize that any player&rsquo;s actions have little effect on "taking the dealer's bust card,"&nbsp;I still go into a tizzy when someone splits tens,&nbsp;and more often than not, I will leave that table. Joe R.&nbsp;</strong></p>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
<p>As you should, Joe &mdash; move, that is. There is no need to allow another player to cause you a heightened state of anxiety. Besides, most gaming statutes across the US do not allow casinos to crazy glue a player to a stool. Free hooch tends to keep you seated, but any form of adhesive is prohibited.</p>
<p>At least, you, Joe, and most of those who regularly read this column know, far too many players blame the anchorman (third base), or others, for giving the dealer an advantage by splitting 10s. For the Average Joe, or even someone who benefits from the use of perfect basic strategy &ndash; seat position or another player&rsquo;s action has little significance on a player's expected return. &nbsp;</p>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
<p><strong>Dear Mark: Are you and a spouse allowed to share roulette chips at the roulette table? My wife, who was sitting patiently waiting for me to lose my remaining chips, decided to help me with that effort and play some of my chips. The dealer would not allow it. What gives? Randy L. </strong></p>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
<p>In the joints where I worked, roulette&rsquo;s color-coded chips were not allowed to be bet, or intermingled with, friends&rsquo; or family, even if, mathematically, the casino would repossess them at a faster pace. If you and your spouse are playing together, you will need to get separate-colored chips. &nbsp;</p>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
<p><strong>Dear Mark: I was at&nbsp;a casino last month and saw a person just betting on the Pair Plus circle at Three Card Poker. He seemed to be doing pretty good, but I was just wondering what your thoughts were regarding this as a strategy for this particular game?&nbsp;Bruce S.&nbsp;&nbsp;</strong></p>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
<p>With Three Card Poker, there are three betting areas: the Ante circle, a Play square and a Pair Plus circle. The player whom you observed just so happened to favor the Pair Plus wager, a bet that his hand would consist of a pair or higher (Pair Plus).</p>
<p>With a Pair Plus wager, you immediately know whether you have won a Pair Plus payoff as soon as you look at your cards. With a Pair Plus bet, there is no raising or discarding, and the dealer&rsquo;s cards are immaterial, with payoffs made according to a posted schedule, regardless of the dealer&rsquo;s hand.</p>
<p>As you know, Bruce, I am one to labor the point of only making wagers that have less than a two percent house edge, but Pair Plus bets may perhaps rate an exception to that rule. Although the house edge on the &ldquo;ante&rdquo; wager is approximately 2.1%, the &ldquo;pair plus&rdquo; has a slightly higher, tolerable casino advantage of just 2.3%, and worthy of a one thumb up recommendation.&nbsp;</p>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
<p><strong>Gambling Wisdom of the Week: </strong>"I've always believed that a small dose of fear is good when you're in a casino." --Jean Scott</p>
<p><strong>&nbsp;</strong></p>]]></content></entry><entry><title>Whoever said you had to have fun?</title><id>http://www.markpilarski.com/deal-me-in/whoever-said-you-had-to-have-fun.html</id><link rel="alternate" type="text/html" href="http://www.markpilarski.com/deal-me-in/whoever-said-you-had-to-have-fun.html"/><author><name>Mark Pilarski</name></author><published>2012-04-06T17:37:29Z</published><updated>2012-04-06T17:37:29Z</updated><content type="html" xml:lang="en-US"><![CDATA[<p><strong>Dear Mark: Assume a gambler had the discipline to walk into a casino, sit down at the blackjack table, and make one $100 bet, win or lose, then walk away. Of course, the gambler would have enough money to cover any splits or double downs. Would that not be better than sitting there making $10 bets for several hours. Over 3 hours, I might wager $1000 doing it that way, compared to $100 the one-time bet way. If the casino has an edge of .05% over perfect play, then their edge is minimized by the smaller amount of money wagered. A caveat to that might be that if I win the one-time bet of $100, then bet $50 the next bet and bet $50 until I lose, thus guaranteeing I walk out a winner if I won the first bet and allowing me to ride a hot streak right out of the gate.&nbsp;This is purely from a money management strategy and not an enjoyment of gambling question. Rob C.</strong></p>
<p><strong>&nbsp;</strong></p>
<p>I am all for getting winning chips off the felt and out of play as quickly as possible, Rob, but since your hypothetical question excludes the entertainment value of gambling, you still have to figure in driving to and from at $4 a gallon. A 44-mile round trip in a Chevy Impala is going to cost you 4% off the top. Besides, who in their right mind is going to drive to, park, tip valet, plop down a Benjamin, and walk?</p>
<p>A one-shot, Ben Franklin wager might mathematically be the correct move, but that&rsquo;s because you are not allowing the grind down to take hold. This is where the casino eventually wins far more than 0.05% of the player&rsquo;s money, due to the combination of the built-in advantage it has at blackjack, and the players&rsquo; self-defeating tendency to churn the initial bankroll.&nbsp;</p>
<p>The casino knows that the typical player does not play $100 just once, but keeps on playing those chips like Pavlov&rsquo;s dog, over and over again. For example, let&rsquo;s say you are the run-of-the-mill player and buy in for $100 worth of chips. With the expected loss of, &ldquo;in theory,&rdquo; five percent ($5) over the course of your first hour, your original bankroll is reduced to $95. Then you start playing that $95, so after another hour goes by you are sitting with $90 and change. Play the $90, and you will have just $85.</p>
<p>You, of course, are playing perfect basic strategy, so the usual five percent is only 0.05%, and yet the grind is still at work. Mix in a lack of discipline, or better yet, free drinks, and that 0.05% can easily become 1-5%. Still, with a one-bet exposure to loss, you&rsquo;re busted. Whereas, grinding it out, you could win, decide not to blow it all, accumulate comps, succumb after an extended period of time and call it entertainment, or lose in mere minutes when playing $10 a pop. That&rsquo;s why they call it gambling, hopefully, with money you can afford to lose.</p>
<p>Your winning progression idea, setting aside your original bankroll ($100) plus half your winnings, then betting the remainder while bankrolling additional winnings, has some rootin&rsquo;-tootin&rsquo; merit, but do you really have the discipline to stick to it?</p>
<p>Personally, if I were limited to making just one $100 play, I would park my rear end in a cushy chair and place a point-spread wager on a sporting event. Scrounge up some loose change from under the driver&rsquo;s seat for some $1 hot dogs and drafts, and life, as they say, doesn&rsquo;t get any better. Unfortunately, Rob, this only works where legalized sports betting is allowed.</p>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
<p><strong>Gambling Wisdom of the Week: </strong>&ldquo;A poker game can go on for 12 hours. When you&rsquo;re on a winning streak, the feeling is better than any other feeling I know.&rdquo;  - Colin Hayes, Evening Standard magazine (7/15/94) Thoughts of would-be professional poker player</p>]]></content></entry><entry><title>“Never” and “always” – princes among the slippery terms</title><id>http://www.markpilarski.com/deal-me-in/never-and-always-princes-among-the-slippery-terms.html</id><link rel="alternate" type="text/html" href="http://www.markpilarski.com/deal-me-in/never-and-always-princes-among-the-slippery-terms.html"/><author><name>Mark Pilarski</name></author><published>2012-03-30T13:20:23Z</published><updated>2012-03-30T13:20:23Z</updated><content type="html" xml:lang="en-US"><![CDATA[<p><strong>Dear Mark: Why do some players on a blackjack table get all hot and bothered when I split 10&rsquo;s? I don&rsquo;t do it every time, nor do I get a 20 hand very often. I never correct their play, like when the dealer is showing a six, and they hit a 12-16. Dan P.</strong></p>
<p><strong>&nbsp;</strong>&nbsp;</p>
<p>A number of players will go into a tizzy when you split 10&rsquo;s because they erroneously believe that you are &ldquo;always&rdquo; taking the dealer's bust card. &ldquo;Always&rdquo; may come from the fact that the most common initial hand is a pair of 10s, simply because there are more tens (10s, Jacks, Queens, and Kings) than any other card rank. Your fair share of getting a 20 is approximately 9.2% of the time. &nbsp;</p>
<p>Even so, Dan, as long as the shuffle is randomized, your play, incorrect as it may be, can just as likely help the table as hurt it. Although your play will have no consequence on the game in general, you are putting your stellar hand in unwarranted jeopardy, nor will you get a recommendation from me to split 10s, but for two exceptions. &nbsp;</p>
<p>In Face-up Blackjack, all the cards dealt are exposed, including both dealers&rsquo; cards. Only here does correct strategy call for splitting 10s against the dealer&rsquo;s 13, 14, 15, or 16. In addition, for card counters, when there is a high proportion of high cards left in the deck, for instance, a high-low true count of plus 4 or more, and the dealer is showing a 6, this would be a situation that favors splitting 10s. Otherwise, Dan, the correct play is to &ldquo;always&rdquo; stand on your 20.</p>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
<p><strong>Dear Mark: In Three-Card Poker, why is it that when I have a flush, and the dealer has a straight, I lose both my ante and my bet? Since when do straights beat flushes. Russ R.</strong></p>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
<p>When you&rsquo;re sitting at the kitchen table with your cronies playing five-card poker games, straights materialize more often than flushes, which makes flushes the more powerful hand. However, with three-card hands, the probabilities are altered and flushes happen to occur more frequently than straights.</p>
<p>Although straights outrank flushes in Three Card Poker, there is still a way for you to win, something. By betting on the Pair Plus option, you are paid for your flush regardless of whether your hand can beat the dealer&rsquo;s because the dealer&rsquo;s cards are immaterial against this wager.</p>
<p>This separate, stand-alone wager has a payout based solely on the rank of the 3-card hand. If your hand contains less than a pair, you lose. With a pair or higher, you win, and the higher the rank, the greater the payout. Here is the payout schedule for Pair Plus wagers:</p>
<p>Straight flush: 40 to 1</p>
<p>Three of a kind: 30 to 1</p>
<p>Straight: 6 to 1</p>
<p>Flush: 4 to 1 (3 to 1 with some pay tables)</p>
<p>Pair: Even money</p>
<p>If you inspect the pay table, Russ, you will note that straights pay 6-1, flushes 4-1. Once again, because they are the less common hand, straights pay more because they outrank flushes.</p>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
<p><strong>Gambling Wisdom of the Week: </strong>&ldquo;If a man has a competent estate of his own, and plays whether himself or another man shall have it, it is extreme folly; if his estate be small, then to hazard the loss even of that and reduce himself to absolute beggary is direct madness.&rdquo;  - Anonymous, The Nicker Nicked; or the cheats of Gaming Discovered 1669</p>]]></content></entry><entry><title>Brightening the cloudy slots scene</title><id>http://www.markpilarski.com/deal-me-in/brightening-the-cloudy-slots-scene.html</id><link rel="alternate" type="text/html" href="http://www.markpilarski.com/deal-me-in/brightening-the-cloudy-slots-scene.html"/><author><name>Mark Pilarski</name></author><published>2012-03-26T16:27:39Z</published><updated>2012-03-26T16:27:39Z</updated><content type="html" xml:lang="en-US"><![CDATA[<p><strong>Dear Mark: On a three-day casino trip, I was playing quarter slots and was down to my last $200 dollars. Instead of playing nickels, I played dollars, losing the remaining two hundred in just a few minutes. I thought that by increasing to dollars, especially on a machine with a sign above touting &ldquo;best paybacks in the house,&rdquo; I would get a better return. The result, I pretty much had nothing to do for the last 24 hours except watch others lose. Kurt B.</strong></p>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
<p>Your letter lacked an inquiry, Kurt, but my guess is that what you&rsquo;re looking for is a &ldquo;what did I do wrong&rdquo; answer. As an appetizer, you are correct that in general, $1 slot machines pay more than quarters, quarters more than nickels, which, in turn, pay more than pennies. The problem, Kurt, is that when you climb the denomination tree, you bet more, and can lose more, at a much faster clip. Bad luck aside, even if the machine returns a decent percentage to the player when playing dollars, you might effectively be cutting the house advantage, but you are betting more of your hard-earned cash (example: $3 versus $.75) per spin.</p>
<p>This upping the ante strategy with limited funds is akin to lambs being led to slaughter. When taking a beating, I advocate a move to a reduced denomination machine, not an increased one. Otherwise, Kurt, you are either playing with money you can't afford to lose, or scared money, which makes for poor playing decisions. I will note here that you do deserve some kudos for NOT using the convenience of getting quick cash from a teller machine to chase losses with a double-up-to-catch-up strategy.</p>
<p>This leads me to urge sound money management techniques. Money management is your life-line to getting home with some semblance of your starting bankroll and not, as in your case, with a pocket featuring a couple two-for-one drink coupons decorated in lint.</p>
<p>For starters, Kurt, on a three-day casino excursion, never bring your entire bankroll to one gambling session. You need to have a daily gambling budget. Start by dividing your bankroll by the number of days you'll be gambling. Then divide each daily bankroll into the number of sessions you will be playing that day. This will result in your single-session bankroll. Don't bet Friday&rsquo;s money on Thursday.</p>
<p>Set a goal of winning between 50 to 100% of a single-session bankroll. Then set aside your original bankroll plus half your winnings. Now you can play with the remainder and continue to set aside additional winnings.</p>
<p>When you cash out your winnings into credit slips, take a moment and carefully think about the exchange. Always treat credit slips as hard-earned legal tender.&nbsp;</p>
<p>Set loss limits and win goals. Example: On losing half your session bankroll (loss limit) you walk, and on doubling your money (win goal), consider doing the same.</p>
<p>Identify the profitable opportunities in gambling by shopping for the best odds, rules and playing conditions. In most cases, that doesn&rsquo;t include slot machines. You knew that already, right?&nbsp;</p>
<p>Finally, money management will not affect the house advantage the casino has at slots, nor will it guarantee that you will win additional money. What good money management principles will do is to minimize your losses and in most cases protect your winnings.&nbsp;</p>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
<p><strong>Dear Mark: Some slot machines offer free bonus spins. Is the random number generator also working on free spins? Gerry J.</strong>&nbsp;</p>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
<p>The RNG is still at work when determining the results of free spins. The only difference, Gerry, is that a free spin is just that, FREE. &nbsp;</p>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
<p><strong>Gambling Wisdom of the Week: </strong>&ldquo;It has been generally observed, that the loss of one hundred pounds shall do you more prejudice in disquieting your mind that the gain of two hundred pounds shall do you good, were you sure to keep it.&rdquo;  - Anonymous, The Nicker Nicked; or the cheats of Gaming Discovered 1669</p>]]></content></entry></feed>
